Kentucky sees worst coronavirus day yet, with more than 4,000 new cases, 35 deaths and other record metrics of misery

From Gov. Andy Beshear's Twitter page

By Melissa Patrick
Kentucky Health News

Gov. Andy Beshear announced record numbers for almost every metric the state uses to measure the coronavirus pandemic Tuesday, calling it "a terrible day." 

"No way to sugarcoat it," Beshear said at his daily briefing. "Today is the very worst day that we have had for reporting on the spread of the coronavirus and it is the deadliest day that we have had. This is exponential growth. . . . If we don’t all do our part, if we try to be the exception, then slowing down this thing won’t work and we will lose a lot more Kentuckians we love and care about.”

Beshear announced record highs for new coronavirus cases, covid-19 deaths, hospitalizations, patients in intensive care and on ventilators, and the highest percentage of Kentuckians testing positive for the virus since the testing became widely available in May: 9.59%.

The governor reported 4,151 new cases of the virus, well beyond the previous record of 3,870, set on Thanksgiving.  

The new record of 35 deaths brought the state's covid-19 death toll to 1,943. The previous single-day high was 33, set Nov. 17.

The number of covid-19 patients in Kentucky hospitals hit a high of 1,777, with 441 in intensive care and 241 of those on a ventilator. And while covid-19 patients' share of beds in the state's hospitals remained the same as Monday, 21%, their percentage of ICU beds increased to 32%, from 30%, and their share on ventilators increased to 41% from 38%. 

“Covid is spreading like wildfire, taking record numbers of people from us, infecting record numbers of people out there,” Beshear said. "That's why we're fighting back. That's why we're trying to be aggressive and not wait for it to overwhelm us, but to try to stem this third wave just like we stopped the first two and not surrender and accept unacceptable fatalities." 

On Nov. 18, Beshear imposed new restrictions, including bans on in-person schooling and indoor service in bars and restaurants, and tighter numerical limits on at-home social gatherings. All have been controversial.

“We do believe right now that the steps that we’ve taken are absolutely necessary,” Beshear said. "And maybe today’s report will convince those out there who disagree.”

Mark Carter, who leads the state's contact-tracing program, said it has shifted to a strategy of mitigation instead of containment because the virus is so widespread. He said tracers are are only contacting patients who test positive for the virus, and instructing them to inform their close contacts.

“We’re being overwhelmed in terms of our disease investigation and contact tracing efforts," Carter said. "I think that is in part because we haven't had the level of compliance that we need to have with public health recommendations around masking and social distancing, and so forth.

"But we can turn that around, we can make a difference with that by taking our individual personal responsibility to heart knowing that we're protecting our loved ones and friends and family and, and we're just being good citizens. And we can we can turn that around." 

Community spread is also taking a toll on nursing homes. The state reported 2,251 active cases among residents and 1,193 among staff, with 173 new resident cases and 109 new staff cases reported today. Beshear said at least 57 long-term-care facilities have 15 or more active cases. Nursing home residents and staff have accounted for 65% of the state's covid-19 deaths.

"Our community response isn't where it needs to be," Beshear said. "Whether or not people in long-term-care facilities get covid is about what we do in our daily lives, the decisions we make and whether or not we do what it takes to prevent it from spreading to those around us."

Beshear reported that another veteran at the state's Thomson-Hood Veterans Center in Wilmore, who was previously listed as recovered, had died, bringing the center's death toll from the virus to 31. He said there is currently two active cases in the center and no new cases have been reported for 18 days. 

He also announced that the veteran who was the first active case at Western Kentucky Veterans Center in Hanson had died. In addition, he said a 37-year-old inmate from the Lee Adjustment Center, a privately operated state prison, had died from covid-19. 

Both Carter and Beshear made urgent pleas for more federal money. 

"Essentially all of our disease investigation and contact-tracing effort across the commonwealth has been funded by the federal CARES Act," Carter said. "We're required to have spent that funding by December 30. We desperately need either an extension of that date or additional funding, or both in order to take this program into 2021 and get us through the months that we need to get through 'til we reach the point where we have a widely available vaccine." 

Speaking more broadly, Beshear said that without any more federal relief funds there won't be any additional relief for restaurants and bars, for additional unemployment aid, for local governments, for eviction relief, or for contact tracing and the state's testing efforts: "Everything stops at the end of December unless we get a new act of Congress."

A bipartisan group of lawmakers outlined a $908 billion relief proposal Tuesday as an attempt to jump-start negotiations so that they can pass relief before the holidays, Andrea Noble reports for Route Fifty. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said there was "no reason" that Congress can't pass one by the end of the year, the Lexington Herald-Leader reports.

Bruce Gadansky

Beshear honored the life of Bruce Gadansky, who died of covid-19 at the age of 76, leaving behind his wife Mickey, two sons and five grandchildren. 

“As Bruce passed on, his wife and son were left to say their goodbyes, urge him on to a better tomorrow, through a phone held to his ear by a nurse," said Beshear. " That is what covid does to our loved ones." 

Beshear said Gadansky was a U.S. Navy veteran who served in Vietnam, was a deputy sheriff in Oldham County for 10 years and championed causes for the elderly during his time as vice-president of operations for the Louisville Better Business Bureau. He had also been a volunteer for St. Matthews Baseball.

“What we must stress here is that Bruce and Mickey tried to do it all right," Beshear said. "They barely left the house in nine months and they always wore a mask. But that’s the thing about masks – it takes all of us wearing them correctly to protect one another. If we do, we can prevent the loss of individuals like Bruce, and the heartbreak of his family who is now mourning." 

In other covid-19 news Tuesday: 

• Tuesday's deaths were a 70-year-old Boyd County man; a 75-year-old Calloway County man; an 82-year-old Christian County man; a 96-year-old Daviess County woman; a 95-year-old Graves County woman; two women, 79 and 86, and two men, 57 and 66, from Grayson County; a 93-year-old Henderson County woman; an 87-year-old Hopkins County man; six women, 61, 64, 76, 77, 77 and 80, and seven men, ages 62, 64, 64, 66, 72, 73 and 94, from Jefferson County; a 62-year-old Jessamine County woman; a 76-year-old Kenton County man; a 79-year-old Marshall County woman; a 66-year-old Mason County woman; two men, 59 and 64, from McCracken County; a woman, 88, and a man, 64, from Monroe County; a 65-year-old Montgomery County man; a 93-year-old Robertson County woman; and an 82-year-old Union County man.
• Counties with 10 or more new cases were: Jefferson, 700; Fayette, 238; McCracken, 172; Warren, 148; Kenton, 126; Hardin, 120; Daviess, 119; Boone, 102; Madison, 97; Laurel, 89; Oldham, 80; Campbell, 73; Christian, 72; Hopkins, 67; Marion, 62; Bullitt, 61; Lincoln, 56; Nelson, 55; Hart, 54; Pike, 51; Montgomery, 50; Carter and Clay, 49; Barren and Graves, 48; Pulaski, 44; Greenup, 41; Magoffin, 39; Marshall, 38; Rowan and Woodford, 36; Whitley, 35; Jessamine, 34; Boyle, 32; Floyd, 31; Ohio, 30; Bell and Henderson, 29; Franklin, 28; Knox and Washington, 27; Clark, Johnson and Logan, 26; Harlan, 25; Anderson, Boyd, Mercer, Rockcastle and Taylor, 23; Lawrence, 22; Garrard, 21; Adair and Scott, 20; Calloway, 18; Grant, Larue and Simpson, 17; Monroe, Perry and Shelby, 16; Bracken and Jackson, 15; Edmonson, Muhlenberg and Pendleton, 14; Grayson and Harrison, 13; Livingston and Mason, 11; and Butler, Letcher, Martin, Union and Wayne, 10.
• Beshear said 2,650 restaurants and bars have applied for the Food and Beverage Relief Fund, for a total of $25.6 million in assistance. The state has already approved applications for $1.7 million. To apply, click here. Beshear said he expects bars and restaurants will be able to resume indoor service on Dec. 14 as planned.
• As cases continue to surge in Kentucky, Beshear encouraged Kentuckians to get tested. Click here to find a location near you. 
• The Healthy at Home Utility Relief Fund still has about $11 million in it that must be dolled out before Dec. 30. “Eligible households can receive a one-time $500 benefit towards their water and or wastewater bills and $400 towards their natural gas or utility bills,” said Beshear. Households who have an income up to 200% of the federal poverty line and have been economically impacted due by covid-19 can apply through their local Community Action office. Click here to find your local office, as well as a list of required documentation, or call 800-456-3452. 
• Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn told McClatchy Newspapers on Tuesday that the FDA will not automatically authorize emergency use of coronavirus vaccines before completing a rigorous independent review. “The urgency of the situation is a pressure that I think is substantial on all of us,” he said in the phone interview. “Our career staff recognize that and are working with great speed. But also we’ve maintained a commitment to using data and science, and we will continue to do that.”
• The coronavirus may have been spreading in America as early as December 2019, according to a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study that found coronavirus antibodies in 106 of the 7,389 blood samples from routine blood donations to the American Red Cross between Dec. 13, 2019 and Jan. 17, 2020, the Herald-Leader reports. However, the researchers also said they wondered if the detection of antibodies in these samples indicates a past coronavirus infection, or that of another pathogen in the coronavirus family, such as the common cold. They also say "widespread community transmission was not likely until late February." 
• In a decision released Monday, Attorney General Daniel Cameron said Kentuckians who report people or businesses to the state for failing to comply with its pandemic restrictions should not be granted anonymity, John Cheves reports for the Herald-Leader. The ruling was made against the Labor Cabinet in an appeal under the state Open Records Act. "In a letter to Cameron, the cabinet warned that publicly identifying tipsters 'will have a chilling effect on citizens’ good-faith reporting of non-compliance with public health orders,' especially if their names are posted online by Beshear’s critics," Cheves writes. 
• Dalton Godbey of Louisville's WDRB looks at why state and local coronavirus and covid-19 statistics don't always match up. 
• The director of the Laurel County Health Department told Phil Pendleton of WYMT that he expects a surge of coronavirus cases in mid-December. Health leaders told him most of their contact tracing points to the virus being spread in household gatherings.

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Ky. expects first coronavirus vaccines in mid-December, for long-term-care residents and staff, and some frontline health workers

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Federal appeals panel says Beshear's ban on in-person schooling can apply to religious schools; positive-test rate jumps to 9.24%

Part of a slide published by Gov. Andy Beshear in response to federal appeals court's ruling

By Al Cross

Kentucky Health News

Gov. Andy Beshear's ban on in-person schooling will remain in effect at all Kentucky schools while federal judges consider whether it can apply to religious schools that follow social-distancing and hygiene rules.

Meanwhile, Beshear announced 2,803 new cases of the novel coronavirus, the most ever on a Sunday, and a record-high share of Kentuckians testing positive for the virus, 9.24 percent.

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals in Cincinnati stayed an injunction issued Wednesday by District Judge Greg Van Tatenhove, saying the religious schools were unlikely to win their case.

"As the governor explains, elementary and secondary schools pose unique problems for public health officials responding to the covic-19 pandemic," the court said in a seven-page opinion. "Compliance with masking and social distancing requirements is difficult to maintain, and students receiving in-person instruction must, in any event, remove their facial coverings to eat. … We are not in a position to second-guess the governor’s determination regarding the health and safety of the commonwealth at this point in time."

On Nov. 18, Beshear banned in-person schooling effective Monday, Nov. 23, and said middle and high schools mist remain in remote or virtual instruction until at least Jan. 4. He allowed elementary schools to resume in-person instruction Dec. 7 if they follow state guidance and are not in the state's red zone, for the highest rates of infection. The order was part of several new restrictions to thwart the pandemic.

Two days later, Danville Christian Academy filed suit against the Democratic governor and his order, and Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron joined as a plaintiff. Several other schools joined in. Van Tatenhove ruled that the state hadn't used the least restrictive means, a requirement when the free exercise of religion is at issue. 

Cameron said on Twitter, "We’re disappointed with the Sixth Circuit’s ruling allowing the Governor to close religious schools, but we’re already hard at work to take this matter to the United States Supreme Court."

The three judges on the appeals-court panel were John M. Rogers and Helene M. White of Michigan, who were appointed by George W. Bush, and Karen Nelson Moore of Ohio, who was appointed by Bill Clinton.

They wrote, "Primarily because plaintiffs are unlikely to succeed on the merits of their free-exercise claim, the preliminary injunction should not have been entered. This is because of the likelihood that our court will rule that the order in question is neutral and of general applicability," a standard applied to cases involving religion, along with a standard of "strict scrutiny." The panel wrote, citing a key word from Chief Justice John Roberts, "Any burden on plaintiffs’ religious practices is 'incidental' and therefore not subject to strict scrutiny."

The judges also noted Beshear's arguments that Kentucky is "particularly vulnerable" to the pandemic because “leads the nation in children living with relatives other than their parents – including grandparents and great-grandparents, who are especially vulnerable to the disease,” and “Kentuckians also have high rates of comorbidities that can lead to severe cases of covid-19, including heart and lung conditions.”

Beshear said on Facebook, "Today, the Sixth Circuit recognized that we must all do our part over the next several weeks to slow this virus. Don’t try to find an exception; do your part to save lives."

In his daily press release on the pandemic, Beshear announced the positive-test rate and the new-case total without noting that the latter was the largest reported on a Sunday. The seven-day rolling average of new cases rose to 2,727 after declining for the two days after Thanksgiving, the day that the state reported the largest number of new cases in a day, 3,870.

The positive-test rate was .05 percentage points above the previous high of 9.19%, recorded one week earlier. It had declined in the days between, averaging 8.92%.

Kentucky hospitalizations for covid-19 declined slightly, to 1,709, with 407 of them in intensive care and 218 of those on ventilators, both near records.

Beshear announced 11 more covid-19 deaths, raising the state's toll to 1,896. They were two Caldwell County men, ages 70 and 80; a Fulton County woman, 87; a Hopkins County woman, 60; a 61-year-old woman and a 90-year-old man from McCracken County; a McLean County man, 88; and four Warren County women, 61, 83, 93 and 93.

Beshear's press release said he thanked Kentuckians "who sacrificed for each other and rose to the challenge of battling covic-19 together during the Thanksgiving holiday" and quoted him as saying:

“The thing about this crisis is, all of us might step up in a different way, but each of our contributions matter. To every family who changed their traditions this year to keep others safe – thank you. To our only line health care workers and first responders who have put your own safety at risk during this pandemic – thank you. To our tireless neighbors battling food insecurity and making sure Kentuckians can put dinner on the table, on Thanksgiving and every day – thank you. And to the retail, grocery, logistics and food and beverage professionals who did the right thing to keep yourselves and customers safe this week – thank you. . . . You are all the best of Team Kentucky.”

Health Commissioner Steven Stack said in the release, “The massive increase of covid-19 in the commonwealth during November has shattered prior records. As we finish the Thanksgiving weekend, we need to show our kindness and caring for each other now more than ever. The spread of the virus is at an all-time high, but science and experience have shown that we are not powerless to shape our future. If we all wear masks, stay six feet away from those outside our home, limit travel and stay home if we are sick, we can put ourselves on a better path, stay safe and suppress covid-19.”

In other coronavirus news Sunday:

• Counties with more than 10 new cases were: Jefferson, 471; Fayette, 314; Daviess, 132; Hardin, 103; Boone, 93; McCracken, 74; Kenton, 70; Campbell, 62; Henderson, 60; Elliott, 47; Bullitt, 42; Perry, 39; Boyd, 38; Jessamine, 37; Warren, 37; Christian, 36; Simpson, 36; Greenup, 34; Graves, 33; Rowan, 32; Whitley, 31; Boyle, 29; Floyd, 29; Madison, 28; Pike, 28; Nelson, 25; Marshall, 24; Lincoln, 23; Scott, 22; Woodford, 22; Calloway, Laurel and Oldham, 21; Ohio, 20; Leslie, 19; Breathitt, Caldwell and Grant, 18; Harlan, Harrison and Johnson, 17; Muhlenberg, 16; Marion and Washington, 15; Bath, Clay, Franklin and Mercer, 14; Knox, Meade and Taylor, 13; Garrard, Magoffin, Martin and McLean, 12; and Hopkins, Knott, Montgomery, Morgan and Pulaski, 11.
• Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that when he warns about "a surge superimposed on that surge that we're already in . . . I don't want to frighten people, except to say it is not too late at all for us to do something about this." But he acknowledged, "I'd have to say honestly unless something changes dramatically, which I don't see that happening, because the curves, when you look at the dynamics of an outbreak, that you see usually a three, four, five-week period of time before curves start really coming down. So, I think we're going to be faced with another situation. We're going to have to make decisions as a nation, state, city, and family, that we're in a very difficult time and we're going to have to do the kinds of restrictions of things we would like to have done, particularly in this holiday season, because we're entering into what's really a precarious situation because we're in the middle of a steep slope."
• Asked what he would say to President-elect Joe Biden if he asked on Inauguration Day, "What's the first thing you want me to do, Dr. Fauci?" the doctor replied "make sure that the vaccines get distributed in an efficient and equitable way" and "the broader testing, namely one that's less sensitive but that's testing people who are not symptomatic, namely a much broader blanket over the country in a way that's easy, that's cheap, that is even a home test. I'm going to be pushing for that because I think when you really allow us to know in a very quick way what the penetrance of infection is in any given way, I think that's going to be very important because the virus is being spread throughout the country by people without symptoms. So, we've got to go beyond the symptomatic people and get a better understanding of the asymptomatic transmission."

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Kentucky doubled its number of covid-19 patients on ventilators in the past month; total cases in intensive care resume uptick

Graph by Kentucky Health News

By Al Cross
Kentucky Health News

More covid-19 patients than ever are on ventilators in Kentucky hospitals, the number having doubled in the last month, from 110 to 220.

But that was the only new record in the state's daily report Saturday, as the Thanksgiving holiday weekend continued, keeping coronavirus testing and laboratory work at lower-than-usual levels.

The state reported 2,437 new cases of the virus, and its seven-day rolling average of daily new cases declined for the second day, to 2,640.

Covid-19 cases in Kentucky hospitals rose slightly, to 1,722, just 25 short of the record set two days earlier. Intensive-care units held 408, just one short of the record set Wednesday. Ventilator cases are also ICU cases.

Hospitalizations for covid-19 are expected to keep rising in Kentucky in the next four weeks, most statistical models are predicting.

The share of Kentuckians testing positive for the virus over the last seven days was 8.95 percent, 0.1 percentage point above Friday's figure and approximately the average of the last seven days. A week ago it was 9.19%.

Gov. Andy Beshear reported 14 more covid-19 deaths, bringing the state's toll to 1,885: a 58-year-old Barren County woman; an 86-year-old Hardin County man; a 70-year-old Hart County woman; a 74-year-old Logan County man; a 73-year-old Marshall County man; a 73-year-old McCracken County man; a 66-year-old Metcalfe County woman; a 75-year-old Monroe County man; a 79-year-old Scott County man; and five women, 57, 71, 78, 84 and 86, from Warren County.

A press release from Beshear's office "urged Kentuckians to strengthen their resolve in the fight against covid-19, with the knowledge that help is on the way," alluding to vaccines that will roll out in the next few months.

“I know we’re tired,” Beshear said in the release. “I know many of us are disappointed we couldn’t celebrate Thanksgiving or enjoy Black Friday shopping the way we usually do. But I promise you: we have come so far and we are almost there. Hang on, Team Kentucky.”

Beshear "reminded Kentuckians to shop safely, purchasing gifts online when possible and avoiding crowded stores," the release said. "If families do need to shop in person, he encouraged them to keep their time inside stores to a minimum and use curbside pickup whenever possible."

“Though we have to do it differently, please support our small businesses this weekend and holiday season,” Beshear said. “Shopping small supports some of our local businesses that have suffered the most economically as we’ve battled covid-19. Let’s show them we have their backs.”

Beshear and Health Commissioner Steven Stack again reminded Kentuckians that receiving one negative test for the virus days before a gathering can’t guarantee that you won’t infect others at that event.

“Persistence is key to limiting the spread and preventing further COVID-19 related deaths,” Stack said. “Don’t give in to mask fatigue. Wear your mask correctly. Vaccines are around the corner and may well be the weapon we need to defeat this illness; until then, every Kentuckian has to rise to this great challenge of our times to care for and protect each other by wearing masks, practicing social distancing, and staying home if you are sick.”

In other coronavirus news Saturday:

• Counties with 10 or more new cases were: Jefferson, 474; Fayette, 224; Warren, 88; Boone, 86; Madison, 82; Kenton, 78; McCracken, 75; Boyd, 57; Christian, 51; Jessamine, 48; Laurel, 47; Campbell, 43; Pulaski, 39; Greenup, 36; Hardin, 36; Oldham, 33; Barren, 32; Lewis, 32; Floyd, 28; Whitley, 24; Nelson, 23; Garrard, 22; Bullitt, 21; Lincoln, 21; Boyle, Franklin and Lee, 20; Taylor, 19; Hart and Simpson, 18; Graves, Pike and Scott, 17; Calloway, Clinton, Hopkins and Spencer, 16; Carter, Johnson, Mason, Shelby and Woodford, 15; Estill, LaRue and Letcher, 14; Breathitt, Marshall and Menifee, 13; Anderson, Casey and Wayne, 12; Grant and Livingston, 11; and Daviess, 10.
• The U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals received briefs opposing Beshear's appeal of a district judge's order that his ban on in-person schooling could not extend to religious schools that are obeying other state rules. Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who joined the case filed by Danville Christian Academy, said more than 20 religious schools filed briefs in support.
• In the final minutes of Friday's basketball game between the University of Louisville and Seton Hall, two adults were ejected from the Yum Center over violations of its mask policy, the arena's manager told the Courier Journal.
• "The number of coronavirus infections in the U.S. could be nearly eight times higher than current reported cases, according to a new model by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, reports Katie Camero of McClatchy Newspapers. Through September, 6.8 million infections were reported, "but when researchers adjusted for potential false-negative test results, incomplete reporting of cases and asymptomatic or mildly ill individuals who never got tested, they learned there may have actually been about 52.9 million infections." The researchers estimates that 84% of Americans have yet to catch the virus.

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Covid-19 hospitalizations in Kentucky are predicted to keep increasing; much depends on how people handled Thanksgiving

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention graph, relabeled by Kentucky Health News, shows predictions of various forecasters for new covid-19 hospitalizations in Kentucky for the next four weeks, in ranges at a statistical confidence level of 95 percent. The numbers can be downloaded.

Kentucky is expected to be part of a predicted national surge in covid-19 hospitalizations after the Thanksgiving holidays. Twelve groups that do such forecasts submitted their predictions to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which published them Nov. 25. Most of the forecasts are for an upward trend, and that was also the case in Kentucky.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told The Washington Post a few days earlier that if Americans “do the things that are increasing the risk—the travel, the congregate settings, not wearing masks—the chances are you will see a surge superimposed upon a surge.”

The forecasts published by the CDC are based on differing assumptions, based in large part on past and expected human behavior, but there's a big variable: how many contacts and exposures there are during the holidays.

"While it appears that many Americans . . . scaled back on their plans for Thanksgiving, heeding the CDC’s recommendation that celebrations should be limited to only household members (people who’ve lived under the same roof for at least the last 14 days), too many have not," writes Frank Diamond of Infection Control Today.

Even before the forecasts, Gov. Andy Beshear and other officials were warning that hospitals could start running short of staff and filling up. "The record for hospitalizations has been broken every day since Nov. 10," Diamond notes.

Sarah Kliff of The New York Times said on PBS's "Washington Week" Friday that there fears of surges across the country like the one that plagued New York City early in the pandemic, not just that hospitals will be overwhelmed but won't have enough staff: "There's only so many people in the U.S. who know how to operate a ventilator, how to treat this disease."

Some of the forecasting groups make assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change, but most assume that existing social distancing measures in each jurisdiction will continue through the projected four-week time period.

Most of the forecasters assume that a certain fraction of infected people will be hospitalized; they are Columbia University, the Covid-19 Simulator Consortium, Google and Harvard University's School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University's Applied Physics Lab; JHU's Infectious Disease Dynamics Lab; the Los Alamos National Laboratory; UCLA; UC-Santa Barbara; and the University of Southern California.

The University of Washington's Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates numbers of new hospitalizations based on numbers of forecasted deaths; Georgia Tech's College of Computing uses hospitalization data reported by some jurisdictions to forecast future hospitalizations; and the Karlen Working Group uses the rate of reported infections to estimate the number of new hospitalizations in a given jurisdiction, unless the rates of reported infections and hospitalizations differ. In that case, the rate of reported hospitalizations is used to forecast new hospitalizations.

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Thanksgiving had highest number of new coronavirus cases in one day, second highest number of confirmed covid-19 deaths

State Dept. for Public Health map, relabeled by Ky. Health News; for a larger version, click on it.

By Al Cross
Kentucky Health News

Thanksgiving saw the highest number yet of new cases of the novel coronavirus and the second highest number of newly confirmed deaths from its covid-19 disease.

Reporting a day late due to the Thursday holiday, Gov. Andy Beshear said 3,870 new cases of the virus were recorded on Thanksgiving. Presumably, the cases were found by tests done before the holiday; the test numbers reported by the state indicated no surge in testing that would produce a surge in cases.

The state said the share of Kentuckians testing positive for the virus was 8.94 percent on Thursday and 8.85% on Friday. That number has generally declined since a high of 9.19% on Sunday, Nov. 22.

The previous high number of new cases was 3,825, on Friday, Nov. 20. The number for Friday, Nov. 27, was 1,747, presumably reflecting a relatively low number of tests on Thanksgiving.

The seven-day rolling average of daily new cases jumped to a record 3,119 on Thursday and fell to 2,822 on Friday.

The state's daily reports showed 32 covid-19 deaths were confirmed on Thursday and four on Friday. The number on Thanksgiving was just one short of the record 33 set Nov. 17.

In a press release, Beshear asked Kentuckians to avoid busy shopping areas to prevent a further escalation of cases, and noted that many retailers are making Black Friday deals last longer, in order to limit crowds.

“These new case reports are truly alarming,” Beshear said. “Please be careful when you’re shopping and consider safer options, like purchasing gifts online for delivery or curbside pick-up. Wash your hands, stay six feet apart from other shoppers and wear a mask at all times. Now is the time we need everyone to buckle down, stay strong and stop this surge in cases.”

The number of covid-19 patients in Kentucky hospitals hit a new high of 1,747 on Thursday and dropped to 1,714 on Friday. The number in intensive-care units rose from 388 Thursday to 390 Friday. That was short of the record 409 set Wednesday, but the number of ICU patients on ventilators rose from 206 to 216, equaling the ventilator record set Wednesday.

The 36 covid-19 deaths reported Thursday and Friday raised Kentucky's death toll from the disease to 1,871. Friday's four fatalities were a 64-year-old woman and a 91-year-old man from Henderson County; and two women, 61 and 83, from Monroe County.

Thursday's victims were a 73-year-old Barren County man; a 66-year-old Bell County woman; an 84-year-old Boone County man; an 81-year-old woman and an 89-year-old man from Calloway County; an 86-year-old Christian County man; a 96-year-old woman and an 86-year-old man from Fayette County; a 78-year-old Floyd County woman; an 89-year-old woman and a 67-year-old man from Graves County; an 88-year-old Hardin County woman; an 82-year-old Henderson County woman; a 100-year-old Hickman County woman; a 69-year-old Hopkins County man; two women, 82 and 95, and an 88-year-old man from Jefferson County; a 63-year-old Johnson County man; a 92-year-old woman and a 65-year-old man from Lee County; a 91-year-old Livingston County man; an 88-year-old McCracken County woman; a 91-year-old Montgomery County woman; a 96-year-old woman and four men, 73, 81, 92 and 95, from Pike County; a 75-year-old Rockcastle County man; an 86-year-old Shelby County man; and an 84-year-old Warren County woman.

In other coronavirus news Friday:

• The state filed suit to close a Lexington coffee shop that defied Beshear's ban on indoor dining and benefited from publicity about it. The Lexington-Fayette County Health Department wants a judge to rule that police can enforce the order; local police have declined, saying it is a civil or regulatory matter, the Lexington Herald-Leader reports. A hearing is set for Monday.
• The U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals set a 10 a.m. Saturday deadline for filings in Beshear's appeal of a district judge's ruling that his ban on in-person schooling could not apply to religious schools that follow the state's social-distancing and hygiene rules.

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Citing his near-death experience, Pope Francis asks you to be touched by others' pain, so we can all gain from the pandemic

By Pope Francis

In this past year of change, my mind and heart have overflowed with people. People I think of and pray for, and sometimes cry with, people with names and faces, people who died without saying goodbye to those they loved, families in difficulty, even going hungry, because there’s no work.

Sometimes, when you think globally, you can be paralyzed: There are so many places of apparently ceaseless conflict; there’s so much suffering and need. I find it helps to focus on concrete situations: You see faces looking for life and love in the reality of each person, of each people. You see hope written in the story of every nation, glorious because it’s a story of daily struggle, of lives broken in self-sacrifice. So rather than overwhelm you, it invites you to ponder and to respond with hope.

These are moments in life that can be ripe for change and conversion. Each of us has had our own “stoppage,” or if we haven’t yet, we will someday: illness, the failure of a marriage or a business, some great disappointment or betrayal. As in the Covid-19 lockdown, those moments generate a tension, a crisis that reveals what is in our hearts.

In every personal “Covid,” so to speak, in every “stoppage,” what is revealed is what needs to change: our lack of internal freedom, the idols we have been serving, the ideologies we have tried to live by, the relationships we have neglected.

Pope Francis

When I got really sick at the age of 21, I had my first experience of limit, of pain and loneliness. It changed the way I saw life. For months, I didn’t know who I was or whether I would live or die. The doctors had no idea whether I’d make it either. I remember hugging my mother and saying, “Just tell me if I’m going to die.” I was in the second year of training for the priesthood in the diocesan seminary of Buenos Aires.

I remember the date: Aug. 13, 1957. I got taken to a hospital by a prefect who realized mine was not the kind of flu you treat with aspirin. Straightaway they took a liter and a half of water out of my lungs, and I remained there fighting for my life. The following November they operated to take out the upper right lobe of one of the lungs. I have some sense of how people with Covid-19 feel as they struggle to breathe on a ventilator.

I remember especially two nurses from this time. One was the senior ward matron, a Dominican sister who had been a teacher in Athens before being sent to Buenos Aires. I learned later that following the first examination by the doctor, after he left she told the nurses to double the dose of medication he had prescribed — basically penicillin and streptomycin — because she knew from experience I was dying. Sister Cornelia Caraglio saved my life. Because of her regular contact with sick people, she understood better than the doctor what they needed, and she had the courage to act on her knowledge.

Another nurse, Micaela, did the same when I was in intense pain, secretly prescribing me extra doses of painkillers outside my due times. Cornelia and Micaela are in heaven now, but I’ll always owe them so much. They fought for me to the end, until my eventual recovery. They taught me what it is to use science but also to know when to go beyond it to meet particular needs. And the serious illness I lived through taught me to depend on the goodness and wisdom of others.

This theme of helping others has stayed with me these past months. In lockdown I’ve often gone in prayer to those who sought all means to save the lives of others. So many of the nurses, doctors and caregivers paid that price of love, together with priests, and religious and ordinary people whose vocations were service. We return their love by grieving for them and honoring them.

Whether or not they were conscious of it, their choice testified to a belief: that it is better to live a shorter life serving others than a longer one resisting that call. That’s why, in many countries, people stood at their windows or on their doorsteps to applaud them in gratitude and awe. They are the saints next door, who have awakened something important in our hearts, making credible once more what we desire to instill by our preaching.

They are the antibodies to the virus of indifference. They remind us that our lives are a gift and we grow by giving of ourselves, not preserving ourselves but losing ourselves in service.

With some exceptions, governments have made great efforts to put the well-being of their people first, acting decisively to protect health and to save lives. The exceptions have been some governments that shrugged off the painful evidence of mounting deaths, with inevitable, grievous consequences. But most governments acted responsibly, imposing strict measures to contain the outbreak.

Yet some groups protested, refusing to keep their distance, marching against travel restrictions — as if measures that governments must impose for the good of their people constitute some kind of political assault on autonomy or personal freedom! Looking to the common good is much more than the sum of what is good for individuals. It means having a regard for all citizens and seeking to respond effectively to the needs of the least fortunate.

It is all too easy for some to take an idea — in this case, for example, personal freedom — and turn it into an ideology, creating a prism through which they judge everything.

The coronavirus crisis may seem special because it affects most of humankind. But it is special only in how visible it is. There are a thousand other crises that are just as dire, but are just far enough from some of us that we can act as if they don’t exist. Think, for example, of the wars scattered across different parts of the world; of the production and trade in weapons; of the hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing poverty, hunger and lack of opportunity; of climate change. These tragedies may seem distant from us, as part of the daily news that, sadly, fails to move us to change our agendas and priorities. But like the Covid-19 crisis, they affect the whole of humanity.

Look at us now: We put on face masks to protect ourselves and others from a virus we can’t see. But what about all those other unseen viruses we need to protect ourselves from? How will we deal with the hidden pandemics of this world, the pandemics of hunger and violence and climate change?

If we are to come out of this crisis less selfish than when we went in, we have to let ourselves be touched by others’ pain. There’s a line in Friedrich Hölderlin’s Hyperion that speaks to me, about how the danger that threatens in a crisis is never total; there’s always a way out: “Where the danger is, also grows the saving power.” That’s the genius in the human story: There’s always a way to escape destruction. Where humankind has to act is precisely there, in the threat itself; that’s where the door opens.

This is a moment to dream big, to rethink our priorities — what we value, what we want, what we seek — and to commit to act in our daily life on what we have dreamed of.

God asks us to dare to create something new. We cannot return to the false securities of the political and economic systems we had before the crisis. We need economies that give to all access to the fruits of creation, to the basic needs of life: to land, lodging and labor. We need a politics that can integrate and dialogue with the poor, the excluded and the vulnerable, that gives people a say in the decisions that affect their lives. We need to slow down, take stock and design better ways of living together on this earth.

The pandemic has exposed the paradox that while we are more connected, we are also more divided. Feverish consumerism breaks the bonds of belonging. It causes us to focus on our self-preservation and makes us anxious. Our fears are exacerbated and exploited by a certain kind of populist politics that seeks power over society. It is hard to build a culture of encounter, in which we meet as people with a shared dignity, within a throwaway culture that regards the well-being of the elderly, the unemployed, the disabled and the unborn as peripheral to our own well-being.

To come out of this crisis better, we have to recover the knowledge that as a people we have a shared destination. The pandemic has reminded us that no one is saved alone. What ties us to one another is what we commonly call solidarity. Solidarity is more than acts of generosity, important as they are; it is the call to embrace the reality that we are bound by bonds of reciprocity. On this solid foundation we can build a better, different, human future.

Pope Francis is the head of the Catholic Church and the bishop of Rome. This essay, taken from The New York Times, has been adapted from his new book “Let Us Dream: The Path to a Better Future,” written with Austen Ivereigh.

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