Number of counties in the White House danger zone remains high, 76; Beshear is hopeful coronavirus cases are stabilizing

By Lisa Gillespie

Kentucky Health News

After announcing 776 new cases of the coronavirus on Tuesday, Governor Andy Beshear was cautiously hopeful that this could signal the beginning of a stabilization because today’s case number was lower than last Tuesday's, when the state had 1,054 new cases. 

His caution stemmed from the fact that Monday and Tuesday's combined total were within 100 of last week's  numbers. 

“We’ve been on this escalation and we want to watch to see if we’re seeing any stabilization, " Beshear said at his daily briefing. "Obviously it is early, but it's something that we had hoped for and I believe that if we see it, it’s because we have more people out there doing the right thing.” 

He also expressed "some concern" over the rise in covid-19 hospitalizations, intensive care and ventilator patients compared to two weeks ago, reporting  704 hospitalizations on Tuesday, compared to 589 two weeks ago; 170 people in intensive care, compared to 129 two weeks ago; and 90 people on a ventilator, compared to 81 two weeks ago. 

The share of people in Kentucky testing positive for the virus in the past seven days is also creeping up, although it continues to be under 5%. It was 4.59 percent on Tuesday. 

Health Commissioner Steven Stack reviewed the latest White Hours Coronavirus Task Force report, which captures the average number of cases in each of Kentucky's 120 counties. 

The latest report, covering Oct. 3rd – 9th, shows 63 percent of Kentucky’s counties have a moderate to high level of transmission, but about the same number of counties in one of the danger zones as the prior week, 76 and 75 respectively. Five fewer counties were in the top two danger zones in this week’s report, 41. 

The number of counties in the red zone increased from 26 to 31; the orange zone dropped from 20 to 10; and the yellow zone increased from 29 to 35. Statewide, Kentucky is in the red zone for cases and in the orange zone for test positivity, ranking the state 12th in the nation for both measures. 

Communities in the White House red zone have weekly positive-test rates higher than 10% and more than one new case per 1,000 residents. Those in the recently added orange zone have 0.51 to 1 new cases per 1,000, and a weekly positive-test rate of 8 to 10%, or one of those two conditions and one condition qualifying as being in the red zone. Yellow-zone communities have new cases between 0.1 and 0.5 case per 1,000 and a positive-test rate of 5% to 8% -- or one of those, with the other in a higher zone. 

Stack, a physician, said there is a growing concern about the number of counties with high case rates. 

“The red [zone] now is in a lot more rural counties, and there are many more red counties than there were in the weeks prior. The disease and who it affects continues to change,” Stack said. “I realize that unfortunately folks have kind of made up their minds sometimes about whether they’re going to mask or not mask. I have to urge you folks, this is not a disease you want to get. . . . So I encourage you strongly, I ask you strongly, please wear a mask. We say to keep others safe, but let me assure you, it’s keeping you safe, too.” 

Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman, who also serves as secretary of the Kentucky Education and Workforce Development Cabinet, strongly encouraged the roughly 200 schools that have yet to report any case information to the state-wide school dashboard to do so. 

“We have over 200 schools in Kentucky that have failed to provide this vital public health information to their communities, even one day over the last two weeks. That is unacceptable and it’s irresponsible. It jeopardizes the health of your students, your school staff, their families in your community,” Coleman said. “We all want our children back in their classrooms . . . But by not being accountable to your community, you are actively impeding this to happen.” 

Dr. Stack also explained the difference between positivity rates and incidence rates. 

He said positivity rates are the total number of people who’ve tested for the coronavirus divided by the number who have positive results. He stressed that this rate does not show how active the disease is.

“So our rate has been between 4 and 5, and even though our active numbers have increased, the state of Kentucky has done a good job of testing enough people to find it,” Stack said. 

He said the incidence rate is a county’s population divided by the number of active cases and this is the rate that shows how active the disease is in a community.

Stack announced that the state is changing the way it computes its positivity rate. Instead of compiling  test information from electronic, phone and fax submissions, starting Monday, he said the state will only use electronic test results from labs in this calculation.  

Stack said with about 8,500 electronic lab tests submitted everyday, this is a large enough sampling for the state to base its rate on. He said the benefits of excluding the manual results are that the state’s system will automatically calculate the electronic test results, filter only the previous seven days of results and create a more stable data stream. 

Asked by Kentucky Health News if he had heard of any actions taken by local officials to support his mask mandate since he had asked them to step up their efforts last week, Beshear pointed to the public service announcement that several mayors created that he showed earlier in the briefing. He also noted that not every step that leaders make results in a fine or punishment. 

“It's as easy as if you walk into a place that's not doing something right, say something about it. It’s important ,” Beshear said. “Most of the time, if it's brought to that manager's attention . . . they’re going to step up and make sure that it's done because we're all out there watching, and we all want to protect one another.” 

He added, “And while I've focused a lot on those that lead their cities and their counties, you and your actions are probably more important, about nicely demanding that those places that these rules apply to follow them because it might be your life, or your family members life that's impacted. “ 

• Jefferson County led the list of those with new cases, with 142.  Other counties with 10 or more were Fayette and Madison, 30; Pike, 27; Warren and Whitley, 19; Bullitt and Jessamine, 18; Harrison, 17; Christian, 16; Hardin, 15; Boone, Caldwell and Daviess, 14; Kenton, Ohio and Knox, 13; Henderson and Nelson, 12; and Campbell, Clay and Taylor, 11. 
• The daily long-term care report shows 32 new residents and 46 new staff have tested positive for the virus, with 788 active resident cases and 505 active staff cases. There have been 766 resident deaths and five staff deaths from covid-19. 
• The daily K-12 school report shows 385 students and 190 staff tested positive for the virus in the last 14 days. 
• There were 14 new covid-19-related deaths reported on Tuesday. The deaths include a 76-year-old man from Daviess County; an 88-year-old man from Fayette County; two women, ages 74 and 87, and three men, ages 82, 88 and 82, from Henderson County; an 87-year-old man from Jessamine County; a 96-year-old man from Jefferson County; 91-year-old woman from Laurel County; two woman, ages, 68 and 95, from Madison County; a 59-year-old woman from McLean County; and a 90-year-old man from Montgomery County. 
• Of the 776 new cases on Tuesday, 111 were 18 and under. "That is a significant percentage of those cases," Beshear said. 
• The Lexington Herald-Leader offers best practices for voting during a pandemic, including tips to follow before voting in person, while waiting in line and while voting. 
• A study, published in The Lancet, found that the first U.S. patient has been reinfected with covid-19, prompting scientist to warn that covid-19 immunity may not be guaranteed, the Herald-Leader reports. The patient is a 25-year-old man from Nevada who tested positive for the coronavirus six weeks after he originally contracted the disease. “All individuals, whether previously diagnosed with COVID-19 or not, should take identical precautions to avoid infection,” says the report.
• Johnson & Johnson's covid-19 vaccine trial has been paused due to an unexplained illness in a volunteer, putting two of the four vaccine trials in the U.S. on hold, USA Today reports. 
• Dana Hall, from Campton, shares her covid-19 story after spending days on a ventilator, Madison Pergrem reports for WYMT. Hall told Pergrem that she is getting better, but still struggles with everyday activities like getting ready for this interview. She said she wants people to know the virus is real and wants people to take it seriously. "Our life has completely changed. He does everything for me so much so that he had to help me get ready for this interview." Pergrem reports that Hall's husband, son, granddaughter, and daughter-in-law all had the virus with mild to no symptoms. 
• Eastern Kentucky health departments report new coronavirus cases and new deaths on Mondays and WYMT reports them. 
• "The head of the World Health Organization said Monday that allowing the novel coronavirus to spread in an attempt to reach heard immunity was "simply untethical,"" The Washington  Post reports.