As more contagious variant of coornavirus becomes dominant, Ky. positive-test rate has increased by over half in last two weeks

By Melissa Patrick

Kentucky Health News

As cases of the coronavirus and the share of Kentuckians testing positive for it tick up, and a more contagious strain becomes dominant, Gov. Andy Beshear and his health commissioner said vaccinations are the way forward.  

“We had eight consecutive weeks of decreasing cases in Kentucky that was interrupted last week by an increase,” Health Commissioner Steven Stack said at the governor's weekly press conference. He also noted that the share of Kentuckians testing positive for the virus is also on the rise, increasing by more than 1% over the last week. On Thursday, that rate was 2.92%.  

"I think those are real increases," he said. "Now the real question will be will the vaccines help to keep those at lower levels and will it keep the hospitals and the ICUs from getting filled up and will it keep people safe and protected from serious permanent harm and or death." 

Stack encouraged Kentuckians to not become complacent about the virus, noting that in the span of eight weeks, the Delta variant has tripled in the United States every two weeks, and is projected to be reported at 51% in next period ending July 22, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. 

At this time, Stack said there are 26 confirmed cases of the highly contagious Delta variant in Kentucky. Beware, he said, if  this variant comes to your community it is known to spread two and a half times more quickly than the original virus.  Further, he said, it may be more dangerous than the other variants. 

"Here's the bottom line," he said. "The single thing you can do to protect yourself and protect all of us is to get vaccinated." 

Beshear said it's important to recognize that every Covid-19 case is not sequenced, and that he anticipates that the overall number of Delta variant cases in Kentucky is similar to the rest of the nation, around 50%. 

Asked why the state did not have access to specific percentages for the Delta variant, Beshear first noted that while you can get a percentage of total cases by using the 26 confirmed cases, "it's not going to be accurate." 

He added that when you consider what it takes to do genomic sequencing on a case, he said he supports the CDCs decision to extrapolate because Kentucky isn't that different than other locations. 

"We know the Delta variant is moving in and is at a higher rate," he said. "People who are unvaccinated at this point need to assess their risk that they will get the Delta variant and not anything else. And unvaccinated people who won't get the vaccine and aren't wearing masks, at this point ought to assume in their risk calculation that they are going to get Covid of some sort." 

Over 2.2 million Kentuckians have received at least one dose of a vaccine, which Stack recognized as a "wonderful success," but said 'We need to do more." That amounts to 50% of the state's total population; 61% of its adults; and 83% of its seniors. 

In another push to get Kentuckians to get vaccinated, Stack showed a bar graph of Kentucky incidence of Covid-19 among those who had been vaccinated and unvaccinated, noting that the risk of getting Covid-19 is reduced by as much as four to eight fold for those who  are vaccinated.

"The more of us who get vaccinated, the fewer bodies are out there for the virus to multiply in, and the overall burden of disease goes down," he said.  

Daily update: The state reported 337 new cases on Thursday, bringing the seven-day average to 196. That is the average for the last 24 days, but the average fell to 163 on June 28 and has increased most days since. The state reported three more deaths from Covid-19, bringing the death toll to 7,253. 

Kentucky hospitals report 241 Covid-19 patients, with 64 of them in intensive care and 32 of those on a ventilator. None of the states 10 hospital readiness regions are using 80% of their intensive care unit. 

The statewide rate for coronavirus cases is 4.10 cases per 100,000 residents. Counties with double that rate are Livingston, 17.1; Martin, 15.3; Carter, 13.3; Hopkins, 12.8; Muhlenberg, 12.6; Grayson, 10.8; Woodford, 10.7; Grant, 10.3; Webster, 9.9; Graves, 9.6; Carlisle, 9.0; and Pike, 8.4.

Vaccine lottery: Beshear continues to encourage Kentuckians to get vaccinated and to sign up to be included in the vaccine lottery drawings to be held July 29 and August 26, with the winners announced the following days. At each drawing, one adult will win $1 million and five students will be awarded a post-secondary education scholarship. To learn more or to register, go to shotatamillion.ky.gov. 

So far, Beshear said 660,721 adults  and 36,800 youth have signed up for the lottery. 

Mask mandate Asked why he was hesitant to reinstate the mask mandate in indoor spaces, especially with the rise in the Delta variant, increasing positivity rate and its slight uptick in cases, Beshear said that would be "premature right now" and ticked off a list of reasons why, including that between 83% and 86% of the state's most vulnerable seniors are vaccinated; 50% of the total population have received at least one dose of a vaccine; the state's hospital capacity remains stable; and national experts are not suggesting that such a mandate is necessary. He said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told governors Tuesday that the number one thing to push right now is vaccines. 

"We're always going to be flexible. We're always going to watch this, but I'm not at a point where I think we need to put in any type of mandate. But I do want to be clear that since we removed the mask mandate, we said if you're not vaccinated, and you're indoors with a group of people other than your family, wear masks, and that hadn't gone away," he said. 

Team Kentucky Memorial: Beshear said 11 finalists have been selected to submit in-depth proposals for a memorial to honor Kentuckians who have died from Covid-19. He said six of the finalist are either from Kentucky or have close ties to the state. 

"When the first case of Covid was confirmed in Kentucky, few of us could have imagined the staggering impact and heartbreaking loss that we would experience. Now more than a year later, we've lost over 7,250 people," Beshear said. 

In addition, the state is establishing a community advisory panel among Kentuckians who have been most impacted by Covid-19 to provide input on the design proposals . 

The panel will include family members and loved ones of those lost to the virus, as well as health care workers, first responders and survivors. Anyone interested in being part of this panel should visit tah.ky.gov. 

Meanwhile, Kentucky families who have lost loved ones to the virus can come get a memorial flag from the Capitol grounds if they would like to have one. Anyone who needs assistance in getting a flag can contact The Office of Constituent Services at 502-564-2611 to request a flag be sent to them. The deadline to get or request a flag is July 15. 

The memorial is estimated to cost upwards of $300,000 and will be funded by private donations.