7-day case average falls again, but 7- and 14-day death averages set new records, and virus-reproduction rate is reported high

RT.live website says Kentucky has the third highest virus reproduction rate among the states. A rate of 1.09 means that on average, 100 infected people will infect 109 others. (Click to enlarge)

By Melissa Patrick

Kentucky Health News

Gov. Andy Beshear announced 3,955 new cases of the novel coronavirus on Friday, bringing the state's seven-day rolling average to 3,601, down for the third day in a row and back to where it was about a week ago. 

“These case numbers are still far too high, but there is hopeful news today, too,” Beshear said in a news release. The share of Kentuckians who tested positive for the virus in the past seven days has declined on five of the last six days, and stood at 12.09% Friday.

Beshear announced 19 more deaths from Covid-19, well below most recent days, but the seven- and 14-day averages of daily deaths are at new highs, 29.3 and 27.5, respectively. The dates do not represent the date of death, but the date that the death was confirmed or, as three were Friday, listed as probable.

The number of Covid-19 patients in Kentucky hospitals continued to decline, to the level it stood at about two weeks ago. Beshear said 1,644 people were in hospital with the disease, 392 in intensive care, down 4.2% from Thursday, and 203 of those on ventilators, a bit under the average for the past week. 

The state's daily report shows that three of the state's 10 hospital-readiness regions are pushing capacity in their intensive-care units. The easternmost region is at 84.4% ICU capacity, Barren River is at 81.48%, and Lake Cumberland, which was at full capacity a few days ago, is down to 84.44%.

Vaccines: Beshear again touted a faster pace of vaccinations. “We are on track as we ramp up to meet our goal of administering 90 percent of all vaccine received within seven days of arrival. In fact, last week we administered more doses of vaccine than we received.”

The state has received 325,625 vaccine doses and 190,547 have been administered. Beshear's release sad 31,158 have been administered to residents and staff of long-term-care facilities by Walgreens and CVS through a federal contract and 159,389 doses have been administered in the state program.  

That means around 59% of the doses received by the state have been administered, while only 31% of the ones sent to the pharmacy chains for long-term care facilities have been administered. 

Beshear has regularly voiced disappointment with the pace of vaccination in the state, especially at nursing homes, which have accounted for almost 70 percent of the state's Covid-19 deaths. That prompted him and the Department for Public Health to allow more flexibility in who can get a vaccination, and set a goal of 90% of doses received to be administered each week. 

The governor has also announced plans for a drive-through vaccination program with Kroger and other partners, starting Feb. 1, for people in the first three priority phases. Also, he has said K-12 teachers and personnel who have agreed to be vaccinated will all be vaccinated by the end of the first week of February, a week earlier than planned.

Whether this increased pace of vaccination will be possible became a bit uncertain after The Washington Post revealed that federal officials' announcement this week that they would begin releasing coronavirus vaccines held in reserve for second shots wasn't going to happen because no such reserve existed, and those doses had already been shipped.

This means states' vaccine allocations will remain largely flat and they won't be able to expand their programs at the pace they had planned for, the Post's Isaac Stanley-Becker and Lena H. Sun report. They add that those in line for a second dose of the vaccine are expected to get them on schedule, but as part of a regular shipment of the vaccine and not from a reserve. 

Beshear's office did not respond to a request from Kentucky Health News for comment on the report, but Daniel Desrochers of the Lexington Herald-Leader posted on Twitter, "When asked if this would affect Kentucky's announcement that it would vaccinate K-12 employees by Feb. 1, Beshear's office said they could not confirm the information in the story. 'We are awaiting more information,' their office said."

The state Cabinet for Health and Family Services provides a weekly coronavirus vaccine progress report. Click here for the one-page report, updated Jan. 15; click here for the power-point with the data; and click here for frequently asked questions.

In other coronavirus news Friday: 

• The 19 additional deaths brought the state's death toll to 3,061. The deaths included two Hardin County men, both 78; a Hart County woman, 87; a Hopkins County woman, 89; seven Jefferson County women, 76, 80, 83, 87, 89, 91 and 92; three Jefferson County men, 66, 69 and 76; an Ohio County woman, 67; a Warren County woman, 88; a Washington County woman, 81; a Washington County man, 71; and a Wayne County man, 64.
• Counties with 10 or more new cases were Jefferson, 584; Oldham, 279; Fayette, 254; Kenton, 227; Boone, 160; Warren, 129; Daviess, 116; Hardin, 97; Laurel, 87; Campbell, 72; Madison, 70; Christian, 62; Pike, 60; Bullitt and Pulaski, 53; Hopkins, 51; Scott, 50; Franklin, 49; Nelson, 46; Clark, 43; McCracken, 41; Jessamine, 40; Henderson and Shelby, 39; Boyle, 38; Barren and Graves, 35; Greenup, 34; Whitley, 32; Floyd, 31; Mercer and Morgan, 30; Knox, 28; Montgomery, 27; Calloway and Ohio, 25; Meade and Woodford, 23; Bell, Boyd, Carter and Muhlenberg, 22; Marshall, 21; Bourbon, 20; Clay, Letcher and Lincoln, 19; Estill, 18; Breathitt, 17; Grant, Hancock, Harrison, Hart, Rockcastle, Simpson, Spencer and Wayne, 16; Mason and Perry, 15; Leslie and Logan, 14; Allen, Anderson, Johnson, Larue and Marion, 13; Clinton, Grayson, Henry, Jackson, Pendleton, Rowan and Union, 12; Harlan, Monroe, Russell, Taylor and Webster, 11; Garrard, McCreary and Todd, 10.
• The Rt.live website shows that Kentucky, along with Hawaii, has the third highest rate of coronavirus spread, with a reproduction rate of 1.09, Becker's Hospital Review reports. 
• According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Covid-19 vaccine data tracker, Kentucky ranks 11th for the percentage of Covid-19 vaccines administered, Becker's reports.
• Kaiser Health News expands on why CVS and Walgreens have been so slow to complete vaccinations. Nationwide, they have administered about one-quarter of the doses they have been allocated, according to the CDC.
• Norton Healthcare, U of L Health and Baptist Health announced Friday they will start offering coronavirus vaccinations to people 70 and older, Sarah Ladd reports for the Louisville Courier Journal. WDRB provides information from several Kentucky health departments and their plans for vaccinating their communities. 
• The CJ's Morgan Watkins walks through the possible scenarios for bills the Republican-led General Assembly has passed to limit the powers of the governor, speaking to both Democrat and Republican leaders in the House and Senate. 
• At the Friday University of Louisville Athletics Association board meeting, U of L announced it spent $871,239 in Covid-19 expenses as of Dec. 31, with more than half of that amount spent on testing, the CJ's Cameron Teague Robinson reports.
• Hazard's WYMT reports, "Long-term care facilities in our region continue to get hit hard by Covid-19" and provides a table that shows the latest facility numbers from Jan. 1-14 in Eastern Kentucky. A separate story shows coronavirus cases and related deaths that have been reported by health departments in the region.
• President-elect Joe Biden unveiled his incoming administration's five-part plan to get Americans vaccinated, saying he plans to greatly expand access to it by invoking the Defense Production Act if necessary, The New York Times reports. NPR summarizes the plan: "Open up vaccine eligibility to more people, create more vaccination sites, increase vaccine supply, hire a vaccination workforce, and launch a large-scale public education campaign."
• A CDC report, based on modeling, says the highly contagious variant of the coronavirus first seen in the United Kingdom will become the dominant strain in the United States within about two months, the Post reports. So far, the emergence of this mutated strain of the virus is not causing more severe illness, but is expected to cause more infections, resulting in more deaths. "Now, more than ever, it is important to slow the spread," says the CDC. "The CDC and unaffiliated scientists have said they see no evidence that this particular variant is driving the winter surge in cases. So far, it has been involved in fewer than 0.5 percent of infections nationwide, testing data suggests," reports the Post.