A mixed bag of metrics: Positive-test rate is up and Covid-19 deaths remain high; virus cases and hospital numbers are down

By Melissa Patrick
Kentucky Health News

While several of the metrics used to measure the impact of the novel coronavirus in Kentucky are on the decline, indicating that the post-holiday surge is waning, the number of Kentuckians dying from the disease remains high and the positive-test rate has inched up again. 

Deaths are a lagging indicator of the pandemic, and Gov. Andy Beshear reported 40 more on Monday, 39 of them confirmed as caused by Covid-19 and one probable. That brings the state's death toll to 3,167. The seven-day average for deaths is 35 per day, and the 14-day average is 30, both new records.

Because of the Martin Luther King holiday, Beshear did not hold his usual Monday news briefing, nor did the state release a detailed list of the new fatalities. 

A leading indicator, the percentage of Kentuckians testing positive for the virus in the last seven days, inched up again, to 11.54 percent. That's up from 11.49% the day before and the first significant increase in this rate since Jan. 10, when it hit the record of 12.45%. 

New cases of the virus are also considered a leading indicator, and that one appears to be improving. Beshear announced 1,998 new cases Monday, a day that often has a lower case count because fewer labs report over the weekend. The number was lower than the last two Mondays.

The seven-day rolling average, which is a better measure of the pandemic because it smooths out daily fluctuations, continued to decline, to 3,301. That's about halfway between where it was on Jan. 7 and 8, when it was in the middle of a steep, post-holiday increase.

Kentucky also saw a decrease in newly reported cases last week, with 3,749 fewer than the week before. The state reported 23,050 cases Jan. 11-17, down from 26,799, which had been the highest week yet. 

Numbers from Kentucky hospitals also declined. They reported 1,587 Covid-19 patients on Monday, 25 fewer than Sunday. This is the first time hospitalizations have numbered less than 1,600 since Nov. 23, except for three days from Dec. 21 to Dec. 28. The report shows 387 Covid-19 patients in intensive care, 23 fewer than Sunday; and 208 are on a ventilator, four fewer than Sunday. 

The hospital-capacity report also shows improvement, with three of the 10 hospital readiness regions reporting intensive-care units more than 80% full: Northeast, 86%; East, 81%; and Lake Cumberland, 84%. Sunday, four were over 80% ICU capacity and Northern Kentucky was above 80% overall capacity.

The two counties with the highest infection rates continue to be Morgan and Oldham, both sites of virus outbreaks at state prisons. Respectively, they averaged 369.2 and 247 cases per 100,000 residents over the past seven days. Other counties with more than 100 new cases per 100,000 residents (1 per 1,000) were: Clinton, 174.8; Wayne, 120.8; Hancock, 111.4; Harrison, 107.4; and  Pulaski, 104.9. Statewide, the rate is 69.27.

In other coronavirus news Monday: 

• Counties with 10 or more new cases were Jefferson, 342; Fayette, 230; Oldham, 208; Madison, 67; Kenton, 66; Boone, 64; Campbell, 51; Warren, 48; Franklin, 38; Greenup, 36; Bullitt, 32; Graves and McCracken, 28; Marshall, 25; Scott, 23; Shelby, 22; Daviess, 21; Harrison, 20; Pulaski, 1;9 Bell, Bourbon and Harlan, 18; Muhlenberg and Pike, 17; Barren, Jessamine and Taylor, 15; Boyd, Christian, Clay and Hopkins, 14; Boyle, Mercer and Woodford, 13; Calloway, Clinton and Floyd, 12; Caldwell, Laurel and McCreary, 11; and Hart, Montgomery and Pendleton, 10.
• The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs in Lexington told WKYT that about 4,000 veterans will have received the first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine following a three-day hospital clinic that ended at 2 p.m. Monday.
• Vaccine sign-ups are available at the University of Kentucky Kroger Field location for vaccinations that will begin at noon Tuesday, Jan. 19. By completing the vaccine request form, you will be added to the database of those requesting vaccination at this location. Priority will be given to healthcare workers, essential workers and older people. Click here for more information. 
• "Inundated with requests for Covid-19 vaccines for people 70 or older, all three of Louisville's hospital systems have been forced to suspend appointments — just three days after they started scheduling them, Deborah Yetter reports for the Louisville Courier Journal. Meanwhile, the waiting list for people seeking appointments has grown to about 40,000 since Friday, Dr. Jason Smith, chief medical officer for University of Louisville Health, said on a press call Monday. Yetter reports that people are encouraged to to keep trying to sign in and that spots will be added as more vaccines become available. 
• The state's vaccine report shows that the state program has received 226,175 doses and has administered 177,197 of them, or 88%. The long-term-care facility program, run by Walgreens and CVS under federal contracts, has received 106,275 doses and administered 36,370, or 34%.